Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
