A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
